Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 839.624286 954.284691 1084.637138 1245.028621 1438.766744 1667.421755 1.961011e+03
2024-10-27 652.075589 791.208990 964.358566 1200.016785 1519.434537 1948.252269 2.587535e+03
2024-11-03 586.595417 741.859439 946.719995 1245.147042 1683.913986 2332.227745 3.420453e+03
2024-11-10 532.986839 696.381499 922.271664 1270.255927 1818.587351 2700.836947 4.356155e+03
2024-11-17 488.887484 655.799760 895.533364 1282.569782 1930.049534 3054.519201 5.398065e+03
2024-11-24 446.152739 611.079882 855.307638 1264.982706 1985.549022 3322.425604 6.387176e+03
2024-12-01 420.581437 588.153267 844.040334 1290.446386 2118.004119 3767.259995 7.980102e+03
2024-12-08 403.019431 575.038514 845.714330 1336.705695 2297.001695 4360.606814 1.030493e+04
2024-12-15 382.819402 555.492759 834.169869 1356.910553 2428.609631 4894.818120 1.286693e+04
2024-12-22 360.067597 529.623087 808.957471 1347.608734 2496.515504 5301.716342 1.537284e+04
2024-12-29 345.641264 515.971777 802.978986 1373.667745 2646.683184 5976.972146 1.957966e+04
2025-01-05 322.122886 485.230116 763.903188 1328.703151 2624.815423 6170.912664 2.198841e+04
2025-01-12 301.588643 458.873372 731.779710 1296.894620 2636.322580 6497.298322 2.566964e+04
2025-01-19 280.550068 430.317254 693.441644 1247.922091 2597.710617 6663.888020 2.886473e+04
2025-01-26 274.068029 426.461490 700.256600 1295.838846 2818.920355 7807.777121 4.082341e+04
2025-02-02 265.421417 418.042932 697.502894 1322.247184 2990.600924 8888.286305 5.613900e+04
2025-02-09 255.969422 407.432036 689.417989 1335.259039 3128.700833 9936.136491 7.619062e+04
2025-02-16 243.973404 391.342927 669.076296 1316.697850 3168.791292 10597.166860 9.572070e+04
2025-02-23 237.481965 384.982869 667.680625 1343.568266 3358.714160 12117.904997 1.425341e+05
2025-03-02 233.426563 382.869560 674.708212 1392.405929 3637.277473 14381.304468 2.434648e+05
2025-03-09 227.109403 375.998021 671.146791 1413.746945 3830.294922 16394.022062 4.005823e+05
2025-03-16 218.603087 364.368602 656.496176 1403.921342 3909.047107 17791.302305 6.030757e+05
2025-03-23 213.645073 359.354342 655.702994 1431.450858 4139.982530 20586.788495 1.223224e+06